Bell: Trudeau exiting, poll finds loser Liberals deeper in the ditch

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The diagnosis is grim.

If this was a doctor’s office and the federal Liberals were the patient they would be told to quickly get their affairs in order.

A fresh Abacus Data poll and these nose-counters know their stuff.

Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives widen their lead on the Liberals after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announces he’ll leave when his party picks a new leader.

Among decided voters the score is even more lop-sided. Conservatives 47 per cent. Liberals 20 per cent. The NDP 18 per cent.

If this was a football game the fans would be heading for the exits to avoid the rush.

David Coletto of Abacus Data says he could see the Liberals telling Trudeau to leave before they pick the next Liberal leader if the numbers don’t budge.

Remember, Trudeau is still around, still irritating us after shutting down Parliament where the Liberals could have been given the boot and we would be having an election.

Right now the Liberals don’t have a lot of time to regroup after Trudeau and face Canadians at the ballot box.

Coletto says the mood on the street is “deeply anxious.”

Inflation, deep insecurity about the future and a rapidly-changing economy. Then we’re on the way to a trade war with the U.S. when Donald Trump, who will be the American president in a week and a bit, will be full of surprises.

Here’s a nugget.

Fewer than a quarter of Canadians think the country is headed in the right direction and that’s a lower number than in the first weeks of the COVID pandemic.

That’s bad.

There is a hopeful thought floating around Liberal party circles.

With Trudeau telling us he will leave soon, there is the theory a new Liberal leader would shock people of the collective funk.

Didn’t happen. One little bit. Not yet.

Of course, Liberals will say: Wait until you see our new leader.

Most of those mentioned are not household names and the majority are part of Team Trudeau.

Once a new leader is selected there won’t be much time to introduce themselves to Canadians.

Then, the other issue.

The pollster asks us to think of Trudeau as the captain of the Titanic, halfway sinking. That’s easy.

Then a new captain comes on board to try to right the ship. Not so easy.

“But there’s a battleship pointing its guns at the Titanic,” says Coletto.

The battleship is the Conservative party with a war chest of money, ready to bombard the Liberal leadership hopefuls.

By the way, there’s a Liberal leadership hopeful not in Trudeau’s inner circle already attracting the attention of the Conservative battleship.

Former B.C. Premier Christy Clark.

Poilievre calls her “the queen of the carbon tax” and says Carbon Tax Clark brought the first and worst carbon tax to her province and bragged about it.

Then there’s the banker Mark Carney. Poilievre calls him Carbon Tax Carney.

A problem?

“His profile and experience may not fit with the mood of the public,” says Coletto.

“I don’t think they’re looking for a technocratic expert. Canadians are in the mood to blame somebody for why they feel the way they do.”

At this time, the pollster does not believe any of the Liberal leadership candidates being mentioned are exciting enough to convince people to give the Liberals a second look.

There’s no spark.

In fact, Coletto thinks Poilievre would have to make a big mistake to change the script. Voters would have to think the Conservative leader was too risky.

On top of it all, Trudeau is still prime minister until March.

“Are you going to have leadership candidates criticizing the prime minister, being a backseat driver? It’s going to be a very strange moment.”

In a time of strange moments.

A little nugget.

Coletto says in polling when folks are asked who would be best to host a party, Trudeau or Poilievre, the prime minster wins by 20 points.

But who is the best to put out a kitchen fire and it’s Poilievre wins by 20 points.

Who would they prefer as prime minister? Poilievre by 20 points again.

Liberals must be disappointed there is not some kind of instant bounce from the news Trudeau is leaving.

They have no choice now but to hope for better.

So if this was the doctor’s office and the federal Liberals were the patient, give us the straight goods on their condition.

“Odds are you’re not going to survive this. Do what you can now because you might not have much time left,” says the man who counts the numbers.

rbell@postmedia.com